Old Masters, New Lessons: Sotheby's Saunders Sale Falls Short

Sotheby’s May 21 sale of 55 Old Master works from the Saunders collection brought in $64.7 million, far below the $80-$120 million estimate. With nearly half the lots unsold and all works backed by guarantees, the auction revealed fault lines in how traditional art is valued and marketed today.

When Guarantees Become a Liability

“Buyers don’t respond well to guarantees.”— Nicholas Hall, former head of Old Masters at Christie’s

The entire evening sale was guaranteed - either by Sotheby’s or third parties - yet the results failed to inspire confidence. Only 58.5% of the lots sold, and that figure drops further when accounting for two works withdrawn before the auction began. Across both the evening and following day sales, where 14 additional Saunders lots were offered, the sell-through rate hovered just above 58%. For a sale anchored by institutional backing and built around a long-assembled private collection, those figures cast a long shadow.

“Buyers don’t respond well to guarantees. I think buyers prefer to make up their own mind as to how they value a picture. A guarantee can actually be, in some ways, a deterrent to potential buyers” said Nicholas Hall, former head of Old Masters at Christie’s.

In a category built on connoisseurship and historical prestige, guarantees can create the perception that works are over-positioned - or worse, propped up.

Only one lot broke the $10 million mark: Francesco Guardi’s Venetian views, which fetched $10.5 million against a $10 million low estimate. The same paintings were purchased by the Saunderses 25 years ago in a Sotheby’s sale after another buyer left to get lunch. Nostalgic symmetry aside, the muted performance marked the only eight-figure result of the evening.

Context, Timing and the Quiet Successes

Several works did perform, and some even set new benchmarks. Jan Davidsz. de Heem’s elaborate floral still life sold for $8.8 million, establishing a new record for the artist. Frans Post’s View of Olinda, Brazil reached $7.37 million, well above his previous record. A kitchen still life by Luis Meléndez triggered a five-minute bidding battle and also set a new high. Additional records were broken for artists like Jan van Kessel the Elder, Jean Barbault, Adam Pynacker and Bartholomew Maton.

But enthusiasm was selective. Hall described the collection as reflective of a moment in collecting history. “The taste of that time is not so much the taste of our time right now,” he said. The works that generated activity were often those with universal visual appeal, strong condition, or historical rarity. Meanwhile, other paintings attracted little more than a single bid - or none at all.

Timing also worked against the sale. May lacks the gravity of London’s July calendar or New York’s early-year auctions. Christie’s absence from the Old Masters category this season left Sotheby’s carrying the full burden of market attention, and without the usual competitive buzz. The result: a decent showing under challenging conditions, but a missed opportunity to reassert the category’s resilience.

Dealers and former auctioneers noted that aggressive estimates may have also contributed to the high number of buy-ins. Hall himself suggested that Sotheby’s offer to the Saunderses may have come with “very bullish” estimates in order to secure the collection - an understandable tactic that nonetheless raises the bar uncomfortably high once the sale goes live. Still, others emphasized that the actual prices realized were strong, and pointed to the difficulty of judging outcomes solely by percentage sold versus presale expectations.

Why This Matters: The Saunders sale was not a categorical failure - but it was a clear signal. Guarantees alone can't engineer demand, and high estimates invite high risk. Success in the Old Masters market now depends on more than provenance and polish. Buyers want transparency, timing that aligns with global schedules, and valuations grounded in today’s collector psychology. For those paying attention, the auction offered more insight than disappointment.